Coming soon · private beta 2026
Live Experiment
We asked AI: Which five national teams have the best chance of winning the 2026 World Cup?
As the 2026 World Cup reached its final days, a surprising thing happened: enforcing a simple constraint became harder, not easier. Despite explicit instructions to list only active teams, some leading AI models relapsed — listing eliminated nations even when just Spain and Argentina remained. This is what the final breakdown revealed.
The question is asked to the AI model at 3 PM (UTC), and the response is posted shortly after.
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain 17% | Spain 60% | Spain 58% | ||
| 2 | France 17% | Argentina 44% | Argentina 42% | ||
| 3 | England 13% | ||||
| 4 | Brazil 10% | ||||
| 5 | Argentina 10% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain 59% | Spain 60% | Spain 60.63% | France 28% | Spain 60% |
| 2 | Argentina 41% | Argentina 23% | Argentina 42.55% | Brazil 22% | Argentina 40% |
| 3 | England 18% | ||||
| 4 | Argentina 15% | ||||
| 5 | Spain 12% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain 20% | Spain 60% | Spain 60.6% | Spain 59% | Spain 60% |
| 2 | France 18% | Argentina 23% | Argentina 42.6% | Argentina 41% | Argentina 43% |
| 3 | England 14% | ||||
| 4 | Brazil 11% | ||||
| 5 | Argentina 11% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain 18% | Spain 60% | Argentina 50% | Argentina 52% | Spain 59% |
| 2 | France 17% | Argentina 21.74% | Spain 50% | Spain 48% | Argentina 41% |
| 3 | England 11% | ||||
| 4 | Argentina 10% | ||||
| 5 | Brazil 9% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain 59% | France 55% | Spain 60% | Argentina 55% | France 39% |
| 2 | Argentina 41% | Argentina 45% | Argentina 43.5% | Spain 45% | England 22% |
| 3 | Spain 66% | Spain 21% | |||
| 4 | England 22% | Argentina 17% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 40% | France 34.05% | Spain 60% | Spain 61% | France 39% |
| 2 | England 22% | Spain 23.45% | England 25% | England 26% | England 22% |
| 3 | Spain 21% | England 21.94% | Argentina 22% | Argentina 21% | Spain 21% |
| 4 | Argentina 18% | Argentina 20.55% | Argentina 18% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 35% | France 33% | France 30.34% | Argentina 35% | France 37% |
| 2 | Spain 31% | England 24% | Spain 30.34% | France 30% | Spain 22% |
| 3 | England 20% | Spain 23% | England 22.76% | England 20% | England 21% |
| 4 | Argentina 14% | Argentina 20% | Argentina 16.55% | Spain 15% | Argentina 20% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 40% | France 33.7% | France 36% | France 40% | France 39% |
| 2 | Spain 23% | Spain 20.8% | Spain 21% | England 25% | England 22% |
| 3 | England 19% | Argentina 18.8% | Argentina 20% | Spain 23% | Spain 21% |
| 4 | Argentina 18% | England 17.5% | England 18% | Argentina 22% | Argentina 18% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 39% | France 55.6% | France 32% | France 39% | France 36% |
| 2 | England 21% | Spain 21.3% | Argentina 20% | England 22% | Spain 21% |
| 3 | Spain 20% | Argentina 20.4% | Spain 19% | Spain 20% | Argentina 20% |
| 4 | Argentina 20% | England 17.9% | England 17% | Argentina 19% | England 18% |
| 5 | Norway 6.25% | Norway 6% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 36% | France 31% | France 36% | Argentina 28% | France 40% |
| 2 | Spain 23% | England 17% | Spain 21% | France 25% | Spain 25% |
| 3 | Argentina 20% | Argentina 13.5% | Argentina 20% | England 20% | Argentina 20% |
| 4 | England 18% | Spain 13% | England 18% | Spain 15% | England 17% |
| 5 | Norway 3% | Norway 7% | Norway 6% | Belgium 12% | Norway 6% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 40% | France Highest | France 32% | France 36% | France 43% |
| 2 | Spain 18% | Spain High | Argentina 20% | Spain 21% | Spain 20% |
| 3 | Argentina 17% | Argentina High | Spain 19% | Argentina 20% | Argentina 19% |
| 4 | England 13% | England High | England 17% | England 18% | England 17% |
| 5 | Norway 6% | Brazil Moderate | Norway 6% | Norway 6% | Norway 6% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 35% | France 33% | France 36% | France 32% | France 33% |
| 2 | Spain 20% | Argentina 19% | Spain 21% | Spain 22% | Spain 19% |
| 3 | Argentina 20% | Spain 19% | Argentina 20% | Argentina 20% | Argentina 19% |
| 4 | England 17% | England 16% | England 18% | England 15% | England 16% |
| 5 | Norway 6% | Norway 6% | Norway 6% | Norway 6% | Norway 6% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 61% | France 33% | France 36.36% | Argentina 28% | France 40% |
| 2 | Argentina 18% | Spain 18% | Spain 21.28% | France 22% | Argentina 18% |
| 3 | Spain 14% | Argentina 17% | Argentina 20.41% | England 18% | Spain 14% |
| 4 | England 4% | England 14% | England 17.24% | Spain 15% | England 11% |
| 5 | Portugal 3% | Brazil 10% | Norway 6.67% | Belgium 12% | Norway 7% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 25% | France 36% | France 34.6% | France 36% | France 26% |
| 2 | Spain 17% | Spain 20% | Spain 18.5% | Spain 23% | Spain 19% |
| 3 | Argentina 13% | Argentina 18% | Argentina 17.9% | Argentina 18% | Argentina 18% |
| 4 | England 11% | England 17% | England 14.6% | England 17% | England 14% |
| 5 | Portugal 6% | Norway 6% | Norway 5.8% | Norway 5% | Brazil 8% |
| # | Anthropic | OpenAI | SpaceXAI | Zai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France 35% | France 25.0% | France 34% | France 35% | France 35% |
| 2 | Spain 20% | Spain 15.3% | Argentina 18% | Argentina 22% | Argentina 20% |
| 3 | Argentina 18% | Argentina 14.3% | England 15% | England 18% | England 15% |
| 4 | England 10% | England 12.5% | Spain 13% | Spain 15% | Spain 14% |
| 5 | Portugal 7% | Portugal 10.0% | Portugal 6% | Portugal 7% | Portugal 7% |
What happens when you ask five top AI models to predict the World Cup with real-time constraints? They confidently predict wins for teams that have already gone home. This brief analysis of the AnansiBox tracking experiment reveals why even the best prompts cannot overcome the sluggish inertia of static training data.
